Bangladesh’s deepening crisis

Context: Bangladesh is currently experiencing a fresh wave of political
instability. At present, the nation is contending with political violence, atrocities
against minorities and economic challenges, including soaring inflation, energy
shortages, and a growing balance of payments deficit. The country is navigating
a complex and dynamic geopolitical landscape, particularly a deteriorating law
and order situation created by the emboldened fundamentalist elements. The
interim government that now runs Bangladesh in collaboration with the Army, faces
huge challenges in gaining legitimacy and public trust. This could lead to
further unrest, particularly among the dissatisfied groups.

Key points

·       Overview: With the
newfound strength, fundamentalist groups have escalated their plans for the
radicalization of Bangladesh, thereby challenging the secular structure of the country.
This has resulted in their fresh ideological clash with Bangladeshi
nationalism.

·       Status
of minorities in Bangladesh: The Bangladesh Hindu Buddhist Christian Unity
Council (BHBCUC) presents its annual report on violence against religious and
ethnic minorities recording over 1,000 cases of human rights violations in a
year and resulting in the death of 45 people. According to the BHBCUC, 70-75
percent of the violence is cantered on land grabbing, often under the influence
of political parties and with the complicity of government agencies. The latest
census in 2023 found that 90 percent of the total population of 170 million in
Bangladesh are Muslims, with Hindus still making up the largest minority group
at 8 percent, while Christians represent less than 1%.

·       Implications
of the Bangladesh crisis on India: Security Challenge -
The Bangladesh crisis comes just three years after President Ashraf Ghani’s
government fell in Kabul and the Taliban regained control over Afghanistan
after about two decades, giving an advantage to Pakistan and causing unease for
India.

Border
management - India shares around 4096 km of land border with Bangladesh which is
still not completely fenced.

Rise in
Radicalisation and Terrorism - Some of the radical organizations in
Bangladesh have links with the Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT) other terrorist outfits
based in Pakistan as well as with the Pakistan Army’s spy agency InterServices
Intelligence (ISI), which might like to expand its activities in the eastern neighbour
of its arch-enemy India.

India’s access
to Northeast - India has extended three lines of credit to Bangladesh since 2016
amounting to $8 billion for the development of road, rail, shipping and port
infrastructure. Any disruption in Indo-Bangladesh ties could restrict India’s
access to northeast, which is connected to mainland India through ‘Chicken’s
Neck’ between West Bengal and Assam.

·       India’s
approach: Support Democracy - India’s explicit support to Muhammad Yunus
and the interim government can help restore law & order and protect
citizens’ rights, including minorities, in Bangladesh.

Support to
Minorities - A five-member committee led by a senior Border Security Force (BSF)
official has been set up to communicate with Bangladesh authorities to ensure
the safety and security of Indian nationals, Hindus, and other minority
communities living there.