Indo-Bangla diplomatic tightrope

Context: The troubled history of the partition of India and Pakistan on religious
lines in 1947 and the partition of East Pakistan (Bangladesh) and West Pakistan
(Pakistan) in 1971 led to diasporic divisions in the Indian subcontinent.
Accusations of religious persecution on either side of the border have time and
again been a thorny issue in Indo-Bangladesh relations. The Indian government’s
accusation of persecution of Hindu minorities in these neighbouring countries
as it passed the Citizenship Amendment Act in 2019 irked the Sheikh Hasina
government in Bangladesh. Bangladesh under Hasina has been India’s most
prominent partner in the South Asian region. However, a range of recent
developments has challenged the dynamics of this upward trajectory in
India-Bangladesh relations during the Hasina regime.

Catalyst for PM’s Resignation

·       Overview: PM Sheikh
Hasina’s resignation and flight to India amid protests mark a pivotal shift in
South Asian geopolitics, raising concerns about Bangladesh’s stability and its
relationship with India.

·       Nationwide
Uproar: Student protests over job quotas, fuelled by governmental repression and
violence from the Awami League’s student wing, ignited widespread unrest.

·       Democratic
Deficit: Allegations of electoral violence and rigging diminished democratic
credibility and contributed to public dissatisfaction.

·       Economic
Challenges: Falling forex reserves, currency depreciation, and mounting external
debt have created a looming debt crisis.

·       Chinese
Loans: Much of the infrastructure development relies on high-interest loans
from China.

·       Authoritarian
Measures: Increasing use of stringent laws, such as the Digital Security Act, to
suppress dissent led to a more authoritarian governance style.

·       Economic
Disparities: Corruption, high-profile financial scandals, and growing inequality.

·       Authoritarian
Practices: The Awami League’s (AL) authoritarian measures, including arrests and
harassment of opposition leaders, have fueled resentment among the masses.

·       Corruption
and Nepotism: Perceived corruption and nepotism within the AL have
widened the gap between the government and the impoverished population.

·       Islamist
Influence: The AL encouragement of Islamist groups like Hefazat-e-Islam Bangladesh
has created a toxic environment within the ruling party.

·       Radicalization: Islamist
organisations, through religious schools and mosques, have radicalised a
significant portion of the population, especially the youth.

·       Islamist
Opposition: The Islamist parties, including Jamaat-e-Islami, Hefazat, and Islami
Oikyo Jote, now fill the opposition space.

·       Political
Analyst’s Perspective: Political analysts argue that the AL’s crackdown on
the BNP has inadvertently strengthened Islamist parties, which seek to
implement strict Sharia laws and turn Bangladesh into an Islamic state.