What do the Atlantic Ocean hurricane forecasts foretell for India?

Context: Meteorologists
had previously forecast a historic hurricane season for 2024 based on the
expectation that a strong La Niña would emerge this winter. But while the
hurricanes Helene and Milton may seem consistent with this forecast, 2024 has
evolved to be a year with a summer with no major hurricanes. One important
reason is that the strong La Niña has played truant thus far. In fact, weather
agencies are currently downgrading their La Niña forecasts. Forecasting
seasonal cyclone activity is a challenging task, but hurricane forecasts have
overall become more accurate, especially in terms of narrowing the cone of
uncertainty of the storms’ landfall.

Key
points

·       Overview: India
escaped the worst of the cyclone’s fury due to early warnings from the India
Meteorological Department (IMD) and timely evacuation of people from coastal
areas. India’s disaster management system has improved over the years; however,
the challenges remain for the future.

·       Challenges in forecasting: Cyclones
draw the energy they need from the upper ocean, and the upper oceans are
warming in all cyclone-producing regions of the planet. This has led to many
instances of rapid intensification: when the maximum cyclone wind speed
increases by 55 km/hr or more within a 24-hour period. Rapid intensification
has proven hard to predict. Some other factors are; Limited Lead Time, Vulnerable
Coastal Infrastructure, Lack of Effective Communication Networks, Inadequate
Funding and Resources, etc. The North Indian Ocean is also reported to be
experiencing an increasing number of cyclones, especially in the Arabian Sea.
The fact that the last few years have been unusually quiet only underscores the
challenge of predicting seasonal cyclone numbers, cyclones as individual
events, how they react to global warming, and of course their post-landfall
effects.

·       Progress: India has
made impressive progress in forecasting cyclones together with a disaster
management plan that has been equally effective at reducing the loss of lives. Some
of the measures taken are;

Strengthening Forecasting and Early Warning: Developing
and enhancing the scientific and technological capabilities for monitoring,
predicting and communicating the cyclone hazards and risks.

Enhancing Comprehensive Preparedness and Readiness: Developing
and implementing comprehensive and participatory disaster management plans at
national, state, district and local levels. Identifying and mapping the
vulnerable areas, populations and assets.

Reducing Exposure and Vulnerability: Implementing
structural and non-structural measures to prevent or mitigate the cyclone
impacts.

Fostering Cooperation and Partnership: Participating
in regional and international initiatives for cyclone risk reduction such as
the Indian Ocean Rim Association (IORA), South Asian Association for Regional
Cooperation (SAARC), Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multi-Sectoral Technical
Economic Cooperation (BIMSTEC), etc.

·       Way forward: Our region
needs critical advances in the quality of the predictions of rapid
intensification and landfall and of the cyclones post-landfall. Additional
efforts are also required to project the cyclone risk in the coming years at
hyperlocal scales. India has also started to bring mitigation and adaptation
actions into its mainstream fiscal policies and budgetary processes by
investing in renewable energy, electric vehicles, weather and climate
forecasting, early warning systems, and disaster management. The country’s
strategies for building cooperation, trade, and stability in the region have to
now include the constituent countries’ climate risks as well. This can start by
establishing subcontinent-wide weather and climate networks and improving
forecasts and projections for all parts of India’s wider neighbourhood.