What is Russia’s nuclear doctrine? Updated by Putin

Context: Russian President has signed a revised nuclear
doctrine that marks a major shift in Russia's military strategy. The new
policy, signed on the 1,000th day of the Ukraine conflict, states that Russia
will consider any conventional attack supported by a nuclear power as a joint
attack on Russia. This means if Ukraine, supported by the US or NATO allies,
attacks Russia using Western-supplied weapons, it could be viewed as an attack
by NATO itself. The timing of this policy change is particularly notable as it
follows President Biden's decision to allow Ukraine to use US-supplied
longer-range missiles against Russian targets.

Russia's Updated Nuclear
Doctrine

·      
The
doctrine states that an attack against Russia by a non-nuclear power, with the
participation or support of a nuclear power, will be perceived as a joint
attack on the Russian Federation.

·      
It
specifies that Russia may resort to nuclear weapons in response to a nuclear
strike or a conventional attack that poses a "critical threat" to its
sovereignty and territorial integrity, including that of its ally Belarus.

·      
While the
doctrine states conditions for nuclear weapon use, it does not explicitly state
that every attack will trigger a nuclear response. This ambiguity allows for a
broad interpretation of what constitutes a threat.

·      
The
doctrine asserts that aggression against Russia by a member of a military bloc
or coalition is considered aggression by the entire bloc, implicitly
referencing NATO.

·      
The updated
doctrine details the scenarios in which nuclear weapons could be employed,
particularly in the event of a massive aerial attack involving various military
assets.

Key points

·      
Nuclear
Doctrine: A nuclear doctrine is a
country's official policy that explains when, why, and how it might use its
nuclear weapons - it's like a rulebook for nuclear weapons use and deterrence. It
provides the conditions under which a country would consider using nuclear
weapons, whether for defence, retaliation, or as a warning to other countries
who might threaten them. Countries sometimes update their nuclear doctrines to
respond to new threats, changing global situations, or to send messages to
potential adversaries - just as Russia has recently done.

·      
India's
Nuclear Program: Early
Phase (1940s-1960s) - India's nuclear journey began in late 1940s under
Homi J. Bhabha's leadership, with the establishment of Tata Institute of
Fundamental Research (1945) and Atomic Energy Commission (1948). Under Nehru's
leadership, India initially focused on peaceful nuclear development while
advocating for global nuclear disarmament.

Middle Phase (1970s-1990s) - India conducted its first nuclear test "Smiling
Buddha" in 1974, but maintained it was for peaceful purposes. This led to
the formation of Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG). India refused to sign both the
Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) in 1968 and the Comprehensive Test Ban
Treaty (CTBT), viewing them as discriminatory.

Modern Phase (1998-Present) - The watershed moment came in May 1998 with Operation
Shakti (Pokhran-II) tests, openly demonstrating India's nuclear weapons
capability.

Nuclear doctrine - India adopted formal Nuclear Doctrine in 2003 with key principles: "No
First Use" policy, Credible minimum deterrence, nuclear weapons only for
retaliation against nuclear attack, No use against non-nuclear states.

Current Status - India maintains a doctrine of "credible minimum deterrence"
while developing civilian nuclear program for energy needs. Focuses on
responsible nuclear power status while advocating for global nuclear
disarmament.

·      
India's No
First Use (NFU) Policy: Core
Principles - India's NFU policy means it will not be the first to use
nuclear weapons in any conflict but will respond with massive retaliation if
attacked with nuclear weapons.

Important Features - Only use nuclear weapons in response to a nuclear attack. Retaliation
will be massive and designed to inflict unacceptable damage. No nuclear weapon
use against non-nuclear weapon states. Maintain a credible minimum deterrence.

History - India
formally adopted this policy in January 2003 after the 1998 nuclear tests,
demonstrating its commitment to responsible nuclear weapon state behaviour.

·      
Conclusion: Nuclear doctrine represents a significant escalation
in Russia's military posture and sends a clear warning to Western nations
supporting Ukraine. By explicitly stating that conventional attacks could
trigger a nuclear response, Putin is attempting to deter Western military
support for Ukraine while asserting Russia's nuclear capabilities. The vague
wording of the doctrine, particularly regarding what constitutes a
"critical threat," gives Russia considerable flexibility in
interpreting and responding to perceived threats. This development adds another
layer of complexity to the already tense international situation surrounding
the Ukraine conflict.